WJC Analysis: The Ascent of Islamic Power in the Middle East - Pinhas Inbari

The Ascent of Islamic Power in the Middle East

By Pinhas Inbari

After the eruption of the revolutionary events of the Arab Spring, Hamas leaders in Gaza insisted that these historic events did not start with the demonstrations sparked by the immolation of poor Muhammad Buazizi in Tunisia, but during the Palestinian Parliamentary elections in 2006 that brought Hamas to power. The latest developments in Libya and Tunisia have proved them right. The Arab world has chosen the rule of Islam, be it radical or moderate, over that of liberal democracy.

The so-called founding declarations in Libya and Tunisia reflect the new-found order of the region. In Libya, the head of the National Transitory Council, Mahmud Abd al-Jaleel, declared in the “New Libya Announcement” in Benghazi that all legislation that did not fit Muslim Sharia law would be abolished, including the laws governing matrimony. In practical terms, this declaration amounted to little more than permission to practice polygamy. In Tunisia, however, following the victory of the Islamist Nahda party, its leader Rashed Ganushi was quick to confirm that women’s rights are protected under the rule of the secular state. In mentioning the term of a "secular state" the Tunisian Nahda party distinguished itself from the Muslim Brothers in Egypt who have been insisting on changing the constitutional definition of the country to Islamic. 

While Tunisia and Egypt represent the different currents of the Muslim Brotherhood and competing definitions of statehood and women’s rights, it is possible that Libya is under the threat of a takeover by a radical version of Salafism. The leading religious figure representing the new regime in Libya is the military commander of Tripoli, Abd al-Kareem Belhaj, who, under the name of Abu Abdallah a-Sadeq, was the military commander of al-Qaeda’s Libyan wing. It made an attempt on Qaddafi life in the town of Sirte just two years ago.

Both the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafists descend from the Sunni stream of Islam, yet they are vastly different. The Salafists see the Arab peninsula as the source of Islamic legitimacy, while the Muslim Brothers derive their authority from al-Azhar University in Cairo. If the Salafists can be considered as revolutionaries in the Islamic world, the Muslim Brothers are evolutionaries, and as such ready to dialogue with the West.
 
Tunisia has always been an exception among its Arab sisters. Its deposed leader, Zein al-Abideen bin Ali, was undoubtedly a corrupt despot, but he led an ideological anti-Islamist campaign largely welcomed by the Tunisian middle class. The newly elected Nahda party is aware that, at least at this stage, Tunisians will not welcome radical change that will redefine this secular country as Islamist. However, as the London-based daily Al-Quds al-Arabi discovered, the women in Tunis-city are worried and do not trust Ganushi's initial statements. One woman told the paper, “it is a process of radicalization. I am not sure about myself. I certainly worry for my daughter.” Another said, “I saw the separate lines for men and women in the conservative neighborhood in the capital. This is the model for the future - I am afraid.”

Egypt, by contrast, never led an ideological anti-Islamist campaign, but rather battled for the political spheres of influence of the Muslim Brotherhood. At this time, there is no question in Tunisia that the country should remain secular. Egypt, on the other hand, is to decide on the kind of Islam that will lead the country. The secular "youngsters of the revolution" who sparked last winter’s demonstrations have disappeared and will not challenge the Islamists parties in the upcoming elections.  

The anti-Islamic secularist campaign led by Tunisia’s deposed president Bin Ali was unique in the region. It is doubtful that it will infect its neighbors and may not even survive in Tunisia proper. Its neighbor, Libya, while de-facto controlled by Salafist interests, has yet to turn again the West. The Salafist commander of Tripoli cooperated hand in hand with NATO to topple Qaddafi. Will he now turn against his Western allies once their presence is no longer required? Time, and close observation of the signs on the ground, will tell.