By Pinhas Inbari
As the hostilities between Israel and Gaza waned last week, a terrorist attack in Tel-Aviv by a former resident of the West Bank and a bombing from Lebanon in the northern town of Metulla interrupted the run-up to the ceasefire. The editor of the London-based al-Quds al-Arabi, Abd al-Bari Atwan, predicted that after Hamas’ recent "victory", Israel would find itself vulnerable on other fronts, mainly from Jordan, Syria, Lebanon and the West Bank. In fact, should terrorist attacks from the West Bank persist, Israel may find itself fighting a multi-front battle with the Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank.
Last week’s ceasefire came together after Iran published a statement hailing President Morsi for his efforts "to stop the aggression on Gaza". There are several possible reasons why Iran had a change of heart and decided in favour of the ceasefire. Teheran likely wanted to preserve the remainder of its Fajr 5 missile arsenal in Gaza, in order to have it on hand in the event of a war with Israel and the West over its nuclear program instead of wasting it on the current futile round of hostilities.
However, despite Iranian support of the ceasefire, it is highly unlikely that pro-Iranian factions will end the struggle. Iran, in turn, may decide to avoid endangering the Fajr 5 arsenal in Gaza and therefore shift the weight of the struggle against Israel from Gaza to other fronts such as the West Bank.
Just prior to the terrorist attack in Tel Aviv, Islamic Jihad leader based in Damascus and Tehran, Ramadan Shallah, was very specific in identifying Tel Aviv as the next target of the resistance. http://www.saraya.ps/index.php?act=Show&id=25213 At the same time, Fatah's al-Aqsa Martyrs websites revealed announcements taking responsibility for shooting events against settlers in the West Bank. These posts can be seen as a statement of intent to engage in a military struggle, challenging the position of PLO leader Mahmoud Abbas, who has stated that no military struggle against Israel would be undertaken. While the al-Aqsa Martyrs formally belong to Fatah, they are also linked to Iran’s loyalist in Lebanon – Munir Maqdah. The ground is ready in the West Bank to step up attacks against Israel, should Gaza remain quiet as a result of the ceasefire.
In preparation for its bid for statehood at the United Nations later this week, the PLO has begun to organize "peaceful" demonstrations in support of the cause that did not gather momentum. However, the campaign in Gaza reinvigorated the crowds and turned the statehood marches into Hamas support rallies, which may result in the revival of pro-Iranian terrorist cells inside Fatah.
When the IDF fought pro-Iranian elements in Gaza, it used heavy artillery and the air force. However, its ongoing presence in the West Bank would not require it to resort to such aggressive methods should the situation flare up there. Nevertheless, if the situation in the West Bank worsens, Israel will return to the strict checkpoint regime that will paralyze economic life in the West Bank and set it back decades.