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Home > Publications > Iran Update > Issue 2.34 | ||
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As the world watches warily, the signs coming from Iran are ominous indeed. The dictator continues to threaten, thousands of nuclear centrifuges spin at the speed of sound, Russia sells advanced ground to air missiles to a Syria under the Iranian thumb, and intelligence estimates predict a nuclear capability as soon as 2009. And although some may think they have the luxury to continue to bide their time, these signs cannot be ignored. The one hundred Israeli fighter jets engaged in exercises over the Mediterranean did not go unnoticed by the international community and were reported widely in the Western media. The crystal clear message was signaled to Europe, to America and, of course, to Iran. Israel often performs these kinds of maneuvers in order to be ready for any surprises, and sent a similar message a few weeks ago to Hezbollah and Syria following what happened in Beirut last month. Just as important was the fact that it was the Pentagon that reported on the Mediterranean exercises in order to make sure that Tehran got the right message, something that seems to have eluded the president of Iran up until now. With characteristic effrontery, Ahmadinejad taunted the West about how it has failed in its attempts to solve its nuclear crisis and claimed victory in his nuclear enrichment program. He again rejected the initiative of the six major countries, having the gall to say that he will consider the incentives but absolutely will not meet the requirements. Despite Javier Solana’s efforts on behalf of the EU, options are narrowing down for the West. The Europeans announced more sanctions this week, including the targeting of Bank Melli, Iran’s largest bank. Stronger statements emanating from Britain, France and Germany, in addition to other countries, are an indication that they are finally hearing the message. Others are still deaf. Russia plans to sell advanced anti-aircraft missiles to Iran and finish work on the nuclear reactor in Bushehr, a project they rushed to complete in the wake of the NIE report. Chinese companies invest in Iran, the Swiss and Austrians move towards multibillion dollar gas deals, and the head of the IAEA, having played no small role in this crisis, announces that he will resign if Iran is attacked. Israel cannot afford to ignore this escalating threat, though it certainly does not seek a confrontation, particularly as it suffers a rain of rockets and mortar shells from Gaza during a “truce” with Hamas. The conclusions Israel drew from the events of the summer of 2006 emphasized the necessity for preparedness and Israel wants to make sure she is prepared. Simply put—Israel does not want war but neither does she want to be annihilated.
The contrails of smoke emitted by the long-range fighter aircraft on maneuvers over the eastern Mediterranean are telegraphing an important message to the Europeans, to the United States, to the rest of the world – you have to take this seriously, it is getting worse. America, Europe, even the Russians have said we cannot abide a nuclear Iran but in the meantime it is becoming a reality. Many are not happy about the notion of attacking Iran. The Foreign Minister of Russia decried this idea, warning against the use of force, emphasizing that there is no proof that Iran is trying to develop nuclear weapons. But many other countries are beginning to feel differently, including an increasing number of those who repeatedly remind us that they are geographically closer to Iran than we are. This week, a member of Congress, Rep. Jane Harman (D-CA), said that the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty is obsolete and that the dangers of nuclear material in the hands of this rogue regime are clear. Those in the international community who continue to treat this lightly are simply going to have to understand what this really means and that time is not on our side. They have to look up and read the signals.
Iran Rejects Six-Nation Proposal – Iran said that the package of incentives offered by the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany was “out of the question” because it includes a demand for the country to suspend uranium enrichment. Iran says it will not give in to “illegitimate demands.” Sarkozy to Knesset: A Nuclear Iran is Intolerable – He vowed that France would always defend Israel in the face of any existential threat. See also Irwin Cotler, “A Leadership Role for France,” Jerusalem Post, June 22, 2008. IAEA’s ElBaradei Threatens to resign if Major Powers Threaten Iran Syria, North Korea Helped Iran Develop Nuclear Program – According to Der Spiegel, Syria and North Korea helped Iran construct the nuclear site in Syria that Israel destroyed last September. A joint plan for a nuclear reactor was developed for planned military use. UN nuclear inspectors went to see that site in Syria this week. Rice Blesses Hezbollah Power-Sharing Government – It is a sign that the Bush administration has accepted that the Western-backed democratic leaders who helped Lebanon throw off three decades of Syrian domination cannot govern the country alone. The problem is that this increases Hezbollah’s power. President Bush: Iran Key Mideast Focus – Bush said in an interview that focus in the region has shifted from the Palestinian issue as the main Middle East issue to Iran and its race for nuclear capability. Iran Says Ready to Negotiate on Nuclear Incentives – The Iranian foreign minister said Iran is ready to negotiate over a new package of economic incentives proposed by the six major powers but that it will not consider an enrichment freeze. US: Venezuela Harboring Hezbollah Facilitators and Fundraisers – The US Treasury Department accused two individuals, one of whom owns two travel agencies in Caracas, and one who is a Venezuelan diplomat and runs an Islamic center, of supporting Hezbollah and froze all their assets that are under US jurisdiction. US Says Exercise by Israel Seemed Directed at Iran – Israel carried out a major military exercise earlier this month that US officials say appeared to be rehearsal for a potential bombing attack on Ira’s nuclear facilities. Iran says Israel is not capable of threatening it, and that it would strike back with a strong blow. How Iran Would Retaliate if it Comes to War – Military analysts are warning of severe consequences if the US begins a shooting war with Iran. While Iranian forces are no match for American technology on a conventional battlefield, Iran has shown that it can bite back in unconventional ways.
Scott Petersen,”Iran’s Nuclear Program: Will More sanctions Work?” Christian Science Monitor, June 13, 2008 – Sanctions have had mixed success in recent history, and yielded different results in different countries. Can they now help stop Iran’s nuclear program? Editorial, “U-turns on Iran,” Lost Angeles Times, June 18, 2008 – Western powers, Europe and America, must keep working together as a united front to raise the political cost for defiance of efforts to stop Iran’s race for nuclear weapons. Amir Taheri, “Bombs Away,” (Why Iran will get nuclear weapons), New York Post, June 15, 2008 – The Islamic Republic has been at war against the US for almost 30 years. As soon as the fear of the US attacking Iran like it did Saddam Hussein disappeared, Iran quickened its race for nuclear capability. Joshua Teitelbaum, “What Iranian Leaders Really Say About Doing Away with Israel,” Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, June 17, 2008 – A comprehensive analysis of Ahmedinejad’s statements’ show that it is not calling for “regime change” in Jerusalem, but for the actual physical destruction of Israel. Jane Harman, “The Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty is Obsolete,” Wall Street Journal, June 20, 2008 – Even assuming that Iran intends to use nuclear energy solely for peaceful purposes – and there are very good reasons to doubt Iran’s stated intentions – the dangers posed by unsupervised, weapons-grade material in the hands of a regime that has threatened to “wipe Israel off the map” are unacceptable. Editorial, “The Reason Why,” New York Sun, June 23, 2008 – The latest estimates in Israel are now measuring the timeline for an Iranian nuclear yield in months. According to the Jerusalem, Post, this could be as early as this year and likely in 2009. No intelligence is certain, but this is a question the Jewish state cannot get wrong. See also editorial in Wall Street Journal, “Israel on the Brink,” - June 23, 2008. Hillel Halkin, “Israel’s Lonely Last Resort,” New York sun, June 24 2008 - A nuclear Iran might be more of a menace to Israel, but it would menace nearly everyone. Helene Cooper, “Bush May End Term with Iran Issue Unsettled,” New York Times, June 23, 2008 – The Bush administration has made it clear that it does not want to leave office with Iran any closer to achieving nuclear weapons. What will happen in the seven months left to this term? Fred Hiatt, “Toehold in Tehran?,” Washington Post, June 23, 2008 – The State Department is mulling a proposal to open an interest section in Tehran, similar to the one the United States has operated in Havana since 1977. This would fall short of full diplomatic recognition, but it would open a channel to the Iranian people and, maybe, eventually, to the regime as well.
Iran To Face New EU Sanctions – British PM Gordon Brown announced new European sanctions against Iranian banking, oil and natural gas interests, signaling a growing willingness by allies to join President Bush’s sanctioning of Iran. The EU approved the sanctions, including an assets freeze on Iran’s largest bank. Europe has also expressed concerns about Obama’s campaign pledge to begin direct talks with Iran without preconditions – the European-led offer of incentives is conditioned on Tehran’s suspension of enrichment. Bank Melli: We Will Take EU to Court Senate Finance Committee to Take Up Iran Sanctions Bill - The US Senate is marking up the “Iranian Sanctions Act of 2008”, which a new ban on sales of US-made aircraft parts to Iran, bars the US government from granting export licenses for “nuclear–related goods and services to Russia” until the White House certifies that Russia has suspended nuclear assistance and arms sales to Iran. US Lawmakers Push to Stop World Bank Loans to Iran – US lawmakers considering new funding for the World Bank sought assurances that the agency will not provide loans to Iran. Financial Sanctions Force Iran to Look East - Facing sanctions by banks in the US and Europe, Iran is increasingly looking to banks in China, the Persian Gulf and Southeast Asia to give it letters of credit. Iran Not Withdrawing Funds from Europe – Iranian banks are moving funds from Europe, said the head of an Iranian state bank, contradicting reports that Tehran was withdrawing assets in the face of tightening sanctions. US Moves Against Saudi-based Charity; Lifts Sanctions on Chinese Firm – The Bush administration clamped down on a Saudi charity accused of funneling money to Al Qaeda and lifted sanctions on a Chinese firm after it took steps regarding Iran. A Ranking of the Euro 2008 Countries in Terms of Trade Volume with Iran American state legislatures all over the country are considering divesting state pension and other plans from companies that do business with Iran. Some key states have already passed laws. The attached chart summarizes divestment legislation from ‘05 and ’06, and bills introduced in ’07 and ’08.
Iran Acts to Calm Student Revolt – Thousands of students have forced an Iranian university to close after accusing a senior official of sexual harassment. This is the latest in a series of confrontations between students and authorities. At least one dozen students have been arrested for anti-government activities in the past year. Two Students Commit Suicide After Harassment by University Officials – Two students in Lahijan took their own lives after pressuring by security forces. Iranian Jailed for Outing the Mullah Mafia – Abbas Palizdar, a member of the Iranian General Audit Office, was arrested by the secret police after claiming that a “a mafia-style group of mullahs” is “plundering the country and sending the proceeds to foreign banks.” Eleven Arrested after Assassination of Official – Iranian police have arrest 11 people over the killing of a judicial official by two motorcyclists in the town of Saravan. Extreme and Cruel Punishments in Iran include Public Flogging
Michael Oren, “Israel’s Truce with Hamas Is a Victory for Iran,” Wall Street Journal, June 19, 2008 – Even if the agreement suspends violence temporarily…it represents a historic accomplishment for the jihadist forces most opposed to peace, and defeat for the Palestinians who might have been Israel’s peace partners. Memri, “The Iranian Roots of Hezbollah,” Inquiry and Analysis #448, June 17, 2008 – An in-depth examination of how Hezbollah was created and sustained by Iran with financial support and training, creating a social service network and military prowess. A Year Reshapes Hamas and Gaza – The Hamas takeover of Gaza was successful because they are deeply rooted in Palestinian society and, although brutal, are very good at governing. Despite Hamas’ failures in almost all fields, they are popular for having ended the state of anarchy and lawlessness that prevailed under the Palestinian Authority. Officials Say Hezbollah Sleeper Cells Activated in Canada – Intelligence agencies in the US and Canada are warning of mounting signs that Hezbollah, backed by Iran, is posed to mount a terror attack against “Jewish targets” somewhere outside the Middle East. Iran Cautions US against Further “Miscalculations” – The speaker of the Iranian parliament said if the United States makes another false judgment, Iran would change Washington’s status in the Middle East. He called Hezbollah and Hamas the pioneers of change in today’s world. Syria Won’t End Hezbollah, Hamas Ties – Israel, as a condition for peace negotiations with Syria, has demanded that Syria break off ties with Iran–led Hezbollah and Hamas. Hamas TV Depicts Ways to Kidnap Israeli Soldiers – A video provided by Palestinian Media Watch shows a blown-up IDF armored vehicle and Iran-led Hamas gunmen carrying an IDF soldier over their shoulders, escaping with him. An Exchange of Prisoners is Expected between Israel and Hezbollah, focusing on renowned Lebanese terrorist Samir Kuntar, for the hope of returning Goldwasser and Regev. Due to Hezbollah demand regarding Palestinian prisoners, this deal will be delayed yet again. Hezbollah Sees Role Beyond Israel Leaving Shebaa Farms – Hezbollah intends to remain in Lebanon as a “resistance” movement even if Israel would finally leave the disputed Shebaa Farms district- it would take credit for Israel’s retreat.
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