 |
Home > Publications > Iran Update > Issue 2.24 | |
printable version |
Wherever you find bad news in Gaza or bad news in the West Bank, you will find Tehran and their proxies, Hamas, Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad, and other terrorist groups who receive their money and marching orders from the Iranian regime and do its bidding. Take the case of the fence in Gaza. In these last weeks, the fence and border between the divided city of Rafah and Gaza was blown up by Hamas, causing a refugee flood into the Sinai for, we were told, flour and toothpaste. In fact, the cause was a deliberate, preplanned provocation. This process started about a month to 3 months ago as Hamas, under the electronic gaze of the Egyptians, utilized torches to cut the base supports of the fence and cause its collapse. Sick of incessant rocket attacks emanating from Gaza, Israel was considering re-entering and re-taking the Philadephi route to stop the weapons smuggling through the tunnels. Hamas then began undermining the fence to prepare explosions to kill the Israelis who might be coming to the area. When that did not happen, they hatched this plot of fabricated fuel shortages. The Egyptians knew about this for weeks since they had the surveillance pictures but did not share the information. It is interesting to note that Mubarak and Ahmedinejad had a conversation the day before the fence fell. Also interesting is the fact that this fall coincided with a conference in Damascus of Arab rejectionists of the Annapolis peace conference. Over 300 Palestinian terrorist leaders were convened by Iran and Syria in a gathering originally slated to take place during the Annapolis meeting but which was postponed when Syria decided to actually go to Annapolis. So it was held precisely at the time of the breaking down of the wall in Gaza. The tunnels were not constructed in such a way that could convey large-size ordinance into Gaza. But now that the wall is destroyed, we hear of large anti-aircraft weapons, katyushas and other arms being transferred uninterrupted. Not transfers of fuel—that “shortage” was an excuse manufactured to justify the breach in the wall. Hamas will now be able to increase the striking range of its katyushas and its anti-aircraft weapons. There is a new chilling possibility of Hamas hitting Ashkelon. One wonders if Egypt fully anticipated what problems might be created to its own detriment. Many of those who flooded into Egypt are going to remain there. Now that there are terrorists in the Sinai with large amounts of explosives and other weapons that could not fit into a tunnel, cities in Egypt as well as in Israel may become targets. The policy of letting Israel bleed a little in order to appease the Muslim radicals could backfire.
Allowing this to go on encourages Hamas to continue its violent provocations, so that Israel is again forced to be on the defensive. Another Hamastan may be born in the Sinai, which would provide them with a base from which to operate in Egypt and expand their influence. Iran’s proxies would have an even greater leg up over Abbas. With the transfer of katyusha rockets into Gaza, what we now have is a baby Bek’aa, situated four miles from Ashkelon, like the baby Hezbollahstan in the north that was created with the same technology and money coming from Iran, through Hezbollah. This is a long-term change—the whole paradigm of the Middle East changes in the region because of what happened in Gaza. Now the question is what can Israel do about it. Frankly, its options are limited. One and a half million people in Gaza are miserably abused by their leadership, the Hamas leaders, who are committed to following the orders of Tehran’s leaders who make apocalyptic promises to wipe Israel off the map. Now they have established at least the possibility of a firing platform about four miles from the electric grid in Ashkelon, within easy shot of the Jewish residents living there. The international community must take notice: Gaza-Hamastan is a serious threat to the comity of the region—engineered and financed by Tehran. In New Tirade, Ahmedinejad Predicts Israel’s Demise – In a speech in Bushehr on January 29, Ahmedinejad renewed his verbal attack on Israel saying its days are numbered, predicting that the “filthy Zionist entity” will fall sooner or later. Western Powers Pledge Resolve on Iran, IAEA Makes First Visit to Iran Centrifuge Site - Six world powers agreed to the outline of a new UN sanctions resolution against Iran regarding its nuclear program after a meeting on Berlin. The draft may lack the punitive measures sought by the US but the talks themselves show Tehran that the group still wants it to halt uranium enrichment. France said it expects a quick agreement on a new UN draft as a top EU official announces support for severe sanctions. Israel’s foreign minister called on Russia to support stronger sanctions as well but her Russian counterpart said his country remained opposed to new penalties. Meanwhile, Iran allowed top UN officials to visit an advanced centrifuge site. Diplomats Say UN Resolution to Name Two Iran Banks – Bank Melli and Bank Saderat, two of the largest Iranian banks which are already under US sanctions, are named in the new UN sanctions resolution against Iran. While the US and its European allies wanted to impose similar penalties as those imposed upon other Iranian banks, Russia and China opposed this, demanding instead a voluntary call for increased monitoring of the banks. Iran Receives 5th, 6th, and 7th Shipments of Russian Fuel for Nuclear Power Plant – An 11 ton consignment of enriched uranium arrived at the light-water Bushehr nuclear power on January 21st and the remainder will arrive in the coming weeks. Iran received the 7th shipment on January 26th. 82 tons of initial fuel are meant for Bushehr. Iran Defends Uranium Enrichment, Denies Weapons Quest – An Iranian official said that Iran has increased its production to more than 300 tons of a gas used for uranium enrichment. It is continuing to amass UF6, the feedstock that is injected into centrifuges for enrichment into fuel. Ahmedinejad denounced a US-brokered accord to tighten UN penalties, saying Iran will press on with nuclear activities undeterred by “ineffective” sanctions. Iran Speeding Up Development of Missiles - The head of the US missile defense program warned Europe that Iran has sped up development of long-range missiles. The US faces tough opposition from Russia and increased skepticism from Poland, where the US wants to place part of the missile defense system. Israel’s Defense Minister Ehud Barak said, in an interview to the Washington Post, that the Iranians are much beyond the level of the Manhattan Project, and probably already working on warheads for ground-to-ground missiles. ‘Serious Consequences’ if UN adopts Sanctions: Iran – As Russia completed the fuel deliveries to the Bushehr plant, Iran’s foreign minister threatened that “If a (UN) resolution is passed…it will have serious and logical consequences”. Iran Sanctions Vote at UN Seen Weeks Away – Some countries are saying that they want to wait until the IAEA’s upcoming progress report on inspections in Iran will be submitted in February. South Africa hints at Iran nuclear resolution delay. Bush to Iran: Come Clean on Nukes, Cease Support for Terror – In his State of the Union address on January 28, 2008. President George W. Bush said: ”Wherever freedom advances in the Middle East, it seems the Iranian regime is there to oppose it. Iran is training militia groups in Iraq, supporting Hezbollah terrorists in Lebanon, and backing Hamas’ efforts to undermine peace in the Holy Land. Tehran is also developing ballistic missiles of increasing range and continues to develop its capability to enrich uranium, which could be used to create a nuclear weapon.” UN Sanctions Have Hit Iran’s Economy: Britain – Britain’s UN ambassador said that two rounds of UN sanctions have had an economic and political impact on Iran. Iran Sanctions Ripple Past those in Power – Sanctions against Iran have clearly had an effect. While diplomatic and economic analysts disagree sharply over whether such measures pressure those in power to change their policies, the US will pursue new Iran sanctions despite questions about their usefulness and will consider imposing even more penalties of its own. Despite other countries’ downplay of the severity of the latest sanctions resolution, the US says it is indeed punitive. Iran, Egypt Discuss Keeping Gaza Supply Route Open – Recent talks were held between Ahmedinejad and Egypt’s Mubarak, signaling an improvement in their relations. Talks are being held between the two countries regarding the Egypt-Gaza border. An ayatollah praised Ahmedinejad for his sympathy for Gaza. Iranian daily newspapers called the Gaza situation a “bloodbath” and “genuine Holocaust” being carried out by Israel and the US. Mubarak also met with the speaker of the Iranian parliament. Weapons Made in Iran Continue to Be Found Among Taliban in Afghanistan - Afghan authorities say they have discovered a weapons cache in western Afghanistan containing 130 land mines of different types that appear to have been imported from Iran. This is the latest in a series of caches that the US military, NATO, or the Afghan government have confirmed were either made in or transported through Iran to the Taliban. Iranian Leaders in Budget Spat – Disagreements between the president of Iran and the conservative speaker of parliament are the latest signs of discord in the Iranian government. Ahmedinejad had refused to implement a plan to divert $1B to buy more natural gas to remedy heating supply shortages. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reversed his decision and ordered him to supply it. Both reformists and conservatives are increasingly asking why Iranians are dying from the cold while sitting on massive gas fields. The radical left is also challenging authority in Iran--like the government, it rejects liberal reform and attacks the West. Iran Reformists Fear Mass Exclusion from Key Vote – Iran reformists said that they fear that as many as 70% many of their candidates for parliamentary elections scheduled for March are being disqualified by the vetting body. Iran reformists are threatening to boycott the vote. Iran Purges Moderate Parliament Members - Nearly all the denied applicants belong to the 21 groups designated by Western observers as “reformist”. Basically, they are all critics of Ahmedinejad. However, many so-called reformists do not live up to the title—both Rafsanjani and Khatami were also called “reformers”, and both tried to spread the Khomeinist revolution. Mood of Change Dominates Iran’s Parliament Vote – Even as pro-reformers are being barred from running in the March 14th parliamentary elections, hopes are high that they will still make gains and that those who back Ahmedinejad will suffer because of his poor economic policies that have resulted in double-digit inflation. Iran Summons Norwegian Ambassador over “Meddling Stance” on Human Rights – Iran criticized Oslo for being “against the norms and human rights in the Islamic Republic of Iran.” Norway had criticized punishments handed down by Iranian courts. Iranian Resistance Groups Call upon UN High Commissioner for Human Rights to Condemn Numbers of Executions by Iranian Regime. They also called on international human rights and children’s rights organizations to specifically condemn the executions of teenagers in the wake of public hangings. Anger in Iran after Law Student Dies in Custody – The death of a student in the custody of Iranian intelligence officers has provoked outrage among opponents of the regime, who claim it is part of a concerted crackdown on dissent in the run-up to the parliamentary elections. Iranian students protested on the Tehran University campus to protest imprisonment of students. Iranian Industrial Investments in Syria Almost $1B, Discuss Boosting Trade with Syria – The volume of Iranian industrial investments in Syria amounted to nearly $1B in the shape of government contracts with the Syrian government. High level discussions are underway to increase trade exchange.
Bolton: Zero Percent Chance Bush Administration will Authorize Military Action against Iran - At the eighth Herlzliya Conference, Ambassador John Bolton spoke at length about the Iranian nuclear race and about Israel’s strike in Syria on September 6, 2007. He also warned how North Korea would become a major player in the Middle East arms race, concerned that Iranian-North Korean cooperation was “getting more intensive.” David B. Crist, “Iran’s Small Boats Are a Big Problem,” New York Times, January 20, 2008 - To forestall another confrontation in the Straits of Hormuz or prevent an escalation, the United States needs to do more. Washington should begin by marshalling the support of its allies that already have ships in the gulf that might find themselves in an equally dangerous situation. Sir Nigel Sheinwald, “NIE Does Not Change Our Concerns about Iran,” Washington Institute for Near East Policy, January 15, 2008 - Sir Nigel told the Washington Institute for Near East Policy that the UK’s concerns are based on Iran’s determination to develop enrichment and heavy water reprocessing capabilities and its deliberate concealment of these activities, as well as its refusal to accede to UN requirements. Mehdi Khalaji, “Domestic Issues Trump Foreign Policy in Iran,” Washington Institute for Near East Policy, January 18, 2008 - Corruption, double digit inflation, and lack of heating fuel during a freezing winter – What do these augur for the stability of the current government in Iran and what will be the impact on the upcoming parliamentary elections scheduled for March? Matthew Levitt, “GAO Misleads on Iran Sanctions,” Washington Institute for Near East Policy, January 17, 2008 - While the GAO report constructively recommends that more must be done to assess the effects of sanctions, it misleads when it comes to the specific question of current sanctions against Iran. It does not discriminate between sanctions earlier instituted that were not as effective as those targeted sanctions that are now in play. These latter measures present much evidence that they are indeed working. Y. Mansharof and A. Savyon, “Iran’s Response to Western Warnings: ‘First Strike,’ ‘Preemptive Attack,’ Long-Range Ballistic Missiles, ‘Asymmetric (Guerilla) Warfare’,” MEMRI Inquiry and Analysis Series –No. 407, November 28, 2007 - Iranian officials have stepped up their threats against the West. Although regime spokesmen present Iran’s security doctrine as defensive, the threats being issued by Iranian leaders are taking on increasingly offensive tones. Patrick Clawson, “Iranian Threats and UN Sanctions Debate,” Washington Institute for Near East Policy, January 30, 2008 – What are “smart sanctions”? There are many questions to be answered when criteria for sanctions against Iran are considered. Will they be effective? Will there be an enforcement mechanism? The more Iran’s nuclear program is slowed, the more likely the regime’s fundamental weaknesses will be evident. “A Message for Tehran,” Editorial, Boston Globe, January 25, 2008 -Although the third UN sanctions resolution is relatively mild, without it Ahmedinejad could still go on pretending that the rest of the world accepts his claim that Iran’s nuclear file is now closed. This lets Iran know that that they are not fooling anyone in the international community by hiding their activities. “Too Easy to Refuse,” Editorial, New York Times, January 28, 2008 - The longer Iran defies the Security Council and continues to enrich uranium, the closer its scientists get to mastering the skills for building a weapon. Without stronger punishments and stronger incentives, Iran is unlikely to halt its efforts. “Another Iran Resolution”, Editorial, Washington Post, January 28, 2008 - The punitive measures in this draft are not strong as the others. The main elements call for monitoring transactions by Iranian banks and travel restrictions on senior Iranian officials. However, the passage of this resolution would be important and send the message to Iran that the international coalition against its nuclear program remains intact. US Moves to Keep F-14 Parts From Iran – President Bush signed legislation prohibiting the pentagon from selling leftover F-14 fighter jet parts, a move prompted by security gaps in the military’s surplus auction. House representatives proposed the ban after the press reported that buyers for Iran, China and other countries exploited weaknesses in these security gaps to obtain sensitive military equipment. Turkey Warned Over Iranian Banks – Stuart A. Levey, the US Treasury’s undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, called on Turkey to scrutinize actions by three Turkish branches of Iran’s state-owned Bank Mellat, accused of bankrolling terror. Colorado State Pension Fund Backs Iran Divestment – Colorado’s largest public pension fund will divest itself of investments in companies that have invested at least $20M in Iran’s energy sector. The new policy, worked out by a group of Colorado state legislators and the Denver Jewish Community Relations Council, was approved unanimously by the Public Employees Retirement Association. Governor O’Malley of Maryland Seeking to Divest from Iran – Governor Martin O’Malley of Maryland is advocating legislation to divest Maryland investments from Iran. Following last year’s similar legislation regarding Sudan, top Maryland legislators are backing the move. Getting this legislation passed has been a top priority for Baltimore’s Jewish community. Israel Urges Davos Business Chiefs to Divest From Iran – Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni appealed to the global political and business elite gathered in Davos to make the personal decision to divest from Iran. “Iran is a global threat. And Iran can be stopped by you. You can make the change,” Livni told the leaders.
|
|