Ronald S. Lauder: Obama's perilious visions - Financial Times Deutschland, 16 July 2009
With his Middle East policy the US president is raising expectations around the world. But words alone cannot create peace. Instead they often create illusions. It is now time for a reality check. Read the full article
Circus Maximus - 12 May 2009
The week of April 20th presented us with a spectacle within a spectacle – the world was treated to the antics of the president of Iran at a farce of a UN conference that was supposed to inspire the nations of the world to combat, or at least confront, the scourge of racism. At center stage, given pride of place as the first speaker, was Ahmedinejad of Iran, who spewed forth that which should be unspeakable in the international forum that was founded to protect human rights. His vitriol consisted of the most anti-Semitic and racist vilification of Israel, the Jewish people, the United States, and the West, that one might ever be forced to hear. Ahmedinejad did not get exactly what he wanted out of the Durban Review Conference in Geneva, which was to dominate, win approval and sweep the agenda, but did he get much attention and the open embrace of the Swiss president. Read the full essay
New Leadership for Iran? - 28 November 2008
It is a season of elections. Now that the seemingly endless presidential campaign in the United States is finally over, we will soon see several elections for high office in the Middle East, including election for president of Iran. Ahmadinejad, having gone missing for a while, is now back, although not in such good health and, just like the Iranian economy, on a downward spiral. Although this election will not take place until next June, the players have already been staking out their positions and nearly all have been vociferously critical of Ahmadinehad's failed economic policies. Read the full essay
The Bigger Picture - 29 October 2008
An important article appeared recently in Proceedings Magazine of the U.S. Naval Institute by Col Timothy J. Geraghty, US Marine Corps (Ret.), (see below), who was the commanding officer of the Marine unit devastated by the suicide bombing of its barracks in Beirut on October 23, 1983. He not only conveys a heart-wrenching account of the horrific tragedy of that day but also highlights the terrible fact that intelligence had revealed that Iran was directly responsible for the murders of 241 US servicemen, and, only minutes later, the killing of 58 French peacekeepers in French paratrooper headquarters. The intelligence pointed to clear instructions from Tehran to the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps. This recount is not only timed to mark the 25th anniversary of this heinous act of terrorism, it serves to clearly focus the bigger picture, and to put in perspective the long time line of global developments and activities that constitute the international threat that Iran presents to the security of many regions of the world. Read the full essay
A Narrow Window of Time - 15 September 2008
As we mark the anniversary of September 11, 2001, remembering the shock and sorrow of that day, we are keenly aware that the sponsors of terror continue to threaten the civilized world. The specter of Iran overshadows conflicts all over the globe and its henchmen surface on many continents. While the international community tries to outrun Iran, it is troubling to face the fact that Iran keeps gaining, while world leaders dither. If Iran continues at its current pace to achieve nuclear capability, Iran may reach its target first. Read the full essay
Buying Time - 20 August 2008
Talks with Iran have reached another impasse as the centrifuges continue to multiply and spin in Natanz and reactors are built in Bushehr. Ahmadinejad said he will continue with the nuclear weapons enrichment program, no matter what, and the fear is that soon Iran will reach a point of no return when it will have the technology to build a nuclear weapon. Europe, to its credit, has been trying harder but needs to do more. The EU’s decision to enact more sanctions is laudable but needs grounding in hard reality. Europe’s proclivity to keep making huge energy deals and sign rail link agreements undermines international resolve and the good effects that sanctions have. Sarkozy tried but the fantasy that one could split the Iranian-Syrian coalition in the hope that Syria could be picked off from the Iranian regime is dead. Bashar returned to Damascus after his visit to Tehran and let everyone know in no uncertain terms that he is not a messenger for France or for anybody, as Syria and Iran reaffirmed their staunch alliance. Read the full essay
The "Ultimatum" - 31 July 2008
The battle swirls throughout the Middle East, in Afghanistan, in Pakistan, in Iraq, and Iran is at the center. Much of what is happening there is determined by the despotic regime in Tehran, which threatens the entire region and beyond. And at the momentous meeting, Javier Solana and the world powers gave Iran absolutely, positively, two more weeks to come up with the correct response. No one is under the illusion that the Iranians will be intimidated by the ultimatum-–suspend enrichment of uranium in two weeks or else face the consequences. These negotiations have been going on for five years, bringing Iran five years closer to a nuclear weapons capability. Perhaps Iran might have responded better than it did but Secretary Rice dramatically reversed a very fundamental, long-held position, that of the United States’ refusal to negotiate with Iran unless it stops its uranium enrichment activities. A reversal of a vital point for nothing in return. Rice sent a senior US official to attend the talks, the third-ranking official in the State Department. Presented with this significant concession, perhaps Iran decided not to give Solana an answer right away, preferring to wait and see if the Americans will cave in on something else. Read the full essay
Pandora's Box - 14 July 2008
With yet another ‘no’ to EU Foreign Secretary Javier Solana and to the United Nations Security Council, Iran is telling everyone that it has a nuclear program that can transform into a nuclear weapons program, which it has absolutely no intention of abandoning. It is, however, ready to negotiate over the carrots, maybe even reach a diplomatic resolution. This latest in the long string of negatives is being called “positive and constructive” by diplomats when it is actually more of the same old pattern we have seen for almost eight years. Each time, Iran responded to a similar offer from the participants in the “critical dialogue” or the European 3 with a hopeful but qualified response and finally did not deliver. Read the full essay
Iran Must Be Stopped - 30 June 2008
As the world watches warily, the signs coming from Iran are ominous indeed. The dictator continues to threaten, thousands of nuclear centrifuges spin at the speed of sound, Russia sells advanced ground to air missiles to a Syria under the Iranian thumb, and intelligence estimates predict a nuclear capability as soon as 2009. And although some may think they have the luxury to continue to bide their time, these signs cannot be ignored. Read the full essay
Iran Must Be Stopped - 15 June 2008
Iran continues to make bold statements about increasing the number of centrifuges and accelerating uranium enrichment in direct violation of the sanctions of the United States and the UN Security Council. Several weeks ago, Iran released photos of its new generation of centrifuges that more rapidly spin natural uranium into the kind that is used for reactors or nuclear arms. These centrifuges, running twenty four hours a day at about the speed of sound, have now passed any limit that could possibly indicate that these are meant for generating electricity or any other peaceful purpose. Twice as fast as previous models, they could produce about four times the enrichment. This Iranian nuclear fuel cycle is meant to either provoke a retaliation or to prosecute the devastating threat that Ahmedinejad continually repeats—to attack Europe and the United States and to destroy Israel. Read the full essay
Divestment: An Important Foreign Policy Tool - 29 May 2008
As Iran continues to make rapid advancements on all aspects of its quest to obtain nuclear capability—the missiles, the uranium enrichment—the only area where experts seem to disagree is the timetable for Iran to achieve its goals. Although some predict that Iran will have acquired enough material to make a bomb by 2009 and others say perhaps by 2010 or 2013, these differences are really negligible. It’s safe to assume that we may not have knowledge of every development, leaving us vulnerable to the surprise of some alarming piece of news that demonstrates that, once again, we have under-estimated just how far along Iran has come in its mad pursuit. Despite the judgment the NIE made about Iran stopping the weaponization in 2003, greeted with great skepticism by many, no one should be complacent, the sense of urgency remains. Read the full essay
A Game of Chess- 19 May 2008
President Bush visited Israel this past week, the highlight of a conference to celebrate Israel’s 60th anniversary which was attended by over two thousand leaders from all over the world, and a reaffirmation of the special relationship between the US and Israel. He continued on in the Middle East, to Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. This visit took place under the shadow of military operations in the region already underway, in Beirut and in Gaza. Iran-led Hamas stepped up attacks, greeting the Bush visit with a Qassam barrage. A death recently resulted from a mortar attack on Israel, the first since the disengagement. And west Beirut was taken over in a matter of days by Syria-surrogate Hezbollah, which is under the control of Iran. Read the full essay
A Look Back Shines a Light on the Present- 07 May 2008
This past week, Major General Eliezer Shkedy, the commander of Israel’s air force, told CBS’s 60 Minutes that Iran “… is a very serious threat to the state of Israel, but, more than this, to the whole world.” In addition to heading the IAF, he also heads the Israeli task force on Iran. That tells you a lot about how seriously Israel takes the threats made repeatedly by Iranian President Ahmendinejad. There is no dismissal of him as a crazy person, and no trivialization of him as simply a madman. Shkedy made the comparison to the disbelief which greeted Hitler’s rants that resulted in the ensuing devastation that shocked the world. Read the full essay
Danger: Iranian Influence in Iraq - 16 April 2008
Last week, General David Petraeus and Admiral Ryan Crocker testified in Congress on the recent successes in Iraq when, interestingly, the focus of the hearing became Iran. The language used was strong, describing Iranian weapons found in Iraq and describing Iran as the greatest long-term threat to the viability of the Baghdad government. What General Petraeus may have been letting us know was that the Iraq war is manageable but now America has to see this clearly for what it is—a regional problem. Iran has everything to gain or everything to lose in this struggle and it is playing to win. While the United States wants and needs to have a stable government in Iraq, Iran just won’t want to live with a constitutional government next door and so it is doing everything it can to destabilize it -- sending in material, agents and insurgents. Genera Petraeus told Congress that he can handle Iraq itself and that the Iraqis are working with him, but the mullahs in Tehran loom large over the battlefield and what is at stake is not just the question of Iranian influence, but the very viability of the Iraqi regime and all that implies for the region. Read the full essay
Switzerland’s Shabby Deal with Iran
By Ronald S. Lauder - 04 April 2008
The ejection of the populist politician Christoph Blocher from the Swiss government in December 2007 gave rise to hope that Switzerland could restore its tainted image and that the country’s “splendid isolation” on the international stage might soon be over. In an opinion piece for “NZZ am Sonntag” on 30 December 2007 I wrote: “Switzerland will not have a glorious future by isolating itself from the European Union and the wider world. In our globalized world (…) you cannot isolate yourself if you want to be heard. Swiss diplomacy can only return to its former strength if the Federal Council and the parties supporting it once again represent an open-minded Switzerland.” Read the full essay
Iranian Ambitions - 31 March 2008
American energies have been focused on Iran’s activities in the Middle East but while we have been looking
across the sea, Iran has been working hard to expand its influence in many other places around the globe
(see article below, “Iran’s Global Ambition,” by Michael Rubin). It is important to look closely at what is
happening to our neighbors in the southern half of the hemisphere, in Latin America. Read the full essay
Iran’s Proxy War Against Israel - 13 February 2008
This week’s devastating attack on a Jerusalem yeshiva has shocked us back to reality, after a few years of respite from suicide attacks in Jerusalem. One has to wonder what kind of peace can ever be achieved with those who attack young people studying in school—the victims were mostly teenagers. The pictures of the carnage evoke images that can never be forgotten, while there was rejoicing in Gaza celebrating the deaths of kids. A terrorist with a Kalashnikov rifle carried out a murderous attack and his family set up a mourning tent at their home in east Jerusalem. Over it flies the flag of Hamas. Read the full essay
A Dictator's Threat - 12 February 2008
Last week, Germany marked the 75th anniversary of Hitler's rise to power, reminding us how racism can become ingrained in a society, resulting in a murderous ideology that can have the most tragic consequences. And just this past week, Iran's president Mahmoud Ahmedinejad reiterated his belligerent promise that Iran would produce nuclear capability within a year and that Israel would be wiped off the map. "I warn you to abandon the filthy Zionist entity," he said,"which has reached the end of the line." It is no coincidence that this pronouncement was made at the same time that Iran-backed Hamas terrorists continued to rain an unabated barrage of Qassam rockets on the Israeli residents of Sderot, injuring, among others, Osher Tuito, an eight-year old boy whose legs were partially severed by the explosion. Read
the full essay
The Arab World and the Iranian Threat -02 August 2007
An expansionist and nuclear Iran would pose a serious strategic threat not just for Israel, Europe, and the U.S., but for most of the Arab world as well. Read
the full essay
The Language of the West -
19 July 2007
Defining the nature of the conflict and identifying the enemy is a necessary precondition for victory in war. Read
the full essay
Iran and Sunni Fundamentalism -
12 July 2007
This week’s revelation that Iran has turned into a communications and financial base for al-Qaeda operatives once again sheds light on Tehran’s overarching goals with respect to the Middle East and its ongoing battle against the West. Read
the full essay
Iran in Latin America -
05 July 2007
With Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez ’s visit to Iran this past week, Tehran’s relations with Latin America require increased scrutiny. Read
the full essay
Letter from President Ahmadinejad to Ayatollan Khamanei -
31 May 2007
My dearest Supreme Leader,
It is with great pleasure that I submit to you and the nation a status report on our recent strategic victories. Read
the full essay
Dithering Diplomacy -
14 June May 2007
In the face of two UN Security Council resolutions and two lapsed deadlines for compliance, Iran continues to publicly dismiss the very idea of a temporary suspension of its uranium enrichment work and rapidly advances down the path towards an independent nuclear capability. Read
the full essay
The Newest Front -
31 May 2007
Lost amid the violence of Iraq and the diplomatic crisis over Iran’s nuclear program, Afghanistan is poised to become the most recent front in Tehran’s escalating confrontation with the West in general and the U.S. in particular. Read
the full essay
The Oil Threat -
17 May 2007
The global oil market and open access to the strategic waters of the Persian Gulf are recurring areas of concern in the debate surrounding Iran's nuclear program. The common assumption is that Iran's oil sector is a powerful policy lever in Tehran's favor should the crisis escalate into harsher sanctions or military conflict. In reality, however, Iran's capacity to retaliate against the West through the global oil market is severely limited. Read
the full essay
A Change in France -
10 May 2007
This past weekend’s election of Nicolas Sarkozy as France’s new president has the potential to positively affect French policy on Iran. While there is room for optimism, Sarkozy will have to adhere to his election slogan of change and reform in order to reverse France’s historic enablement of Tehran.Read
the full essay
A Shortening Timeline -
03 May 2007
The central question preoccupying international intelligence agencies, proliferation watchdog organizations, and policy makers everywhere with respect to Iran’s nuclear program is this: How long will it take Tehran to develop a nuclear weapon?
Read
the full essay
Human Rights in Iran -
26 April 2007
Especially over the last five months, but increasingly since the rise of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to power, the Iranian government has conducted a wide-ranging campaign of political and social repression against its own people.
Read
the full essay
Iran and the Global Rise in Anti-Semitism -
19 April 2007
2006 saw the highest number of anti-Semitic incidents worldwide since 2000, with a twofold increase in physical attacks against Jews from the year before. The two prime events largely responsible for this rise were “the efforts invested by Iran to delegitimize Israel by denying the Holocaust, and the Second Lebanon War,” according to a new global study by the Stephen Roth Institute.
Read
the full essay
One Year On -
12 April 2007
This issue marks the beginning of the second volume of Iran Update, which began as a modest bi-weekly publication one year ago to inform Jewish communities around the world of the Iranian threat.
Read
the full essay
Iran and the International Community -
29 March 2007
The passage this week of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1747 was an important additional step for the international community in its efforts at forcing Iran to freeze its uranium enrichment program and enter into negotiations regarding its controversial nuclear program.
Read
the full essay
The Venezuelan Connection -
22 March 2007
Top officials of the World Jewish Congress and Latin American Jewish Congress are convening in Caracas, Venezuela this week to head an international conference of Jewish leaders, in a show of solidarity with the local Jewish community.
Read
the full essay
Essay -
15 March 2007
Domestic criticism of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad regarding his handling of Iran’s economy and nuclear program is growing. Condemnation from reformists, moderate conservatives, and even some ultra-conservatives in the president’s own camp is a reflection of real dissatisfaction among the ruling elite over Ahmadinejad’s charged rhetoric and confrontational approach.
Read
the full essay
Questionable Allies -
08 March 2007
In a recent speech delivered in Munich, Russian President Vladimir Putin made clear that Moscow increasingly views its interests as divergent from the West’s. This growing chasm is most evident in Russia’s policies towards the Middle East and Iran.
Read
the full essay
Saudi Influence -
28 February 2007
Iran’s dangerously destabilizing actions have awoken the concern not just of the United States, Europe, and Israel, but also Saudi Arabia. Rising Iranian influence and a growing Sunni-Shi’a divide have forced the Saudis to increase their diplomatic involvement in various crises and conflicts in the region.
Read
the full essay
Implications of Dealing with North Korea -
22 February 2007
With Britain ruling out military strikes on Iran, diplomacy might receive renewed attention. The recent agreement to denuclearize North Korea and the reasons it was finally reached might provide substantial lessons for dealing with Iran and its nuclear program.
Read
the full essay
The Worst Option -
08 February 2007
As long as there is a chance of preventing a nuclear Iran through non-military means, any option is preferable to military force. However, though it is an option of last resort, military force to prevent Iran from attaining nuclear weapons capability is both practical and viable. Read
the full essay
Iran v. Democracy -
25 November 2006
Iran already controls the foreign policy activities of the Syrian government. Now, evidence is mounting that the Iranian regime is on the verge of creating a civil war in Lebanon to have the minority Shi’a control the government there, while commanding a deadly role in the war against coalition forces and the government in Iraq. Read
the full essay
Russian Roulette II -
02 November 2006
The resumption of negotiations at the United
Nations Security Council over Iran’s nuclear program
highlights the obstructionist global position
of Russia. Ostensibly an ally of the West and the
civilized world, Russia’s recent foreign policy
choices have undermined world security. Iran is
just one highly consequential symptom of this
larger Russian epidemic.Read
the full essay
A Matter of Time -
16 November 2006
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s declaration that his country will achieve “full nuclearization” by March 2007, if true, dramatically alters the point of no return when Iran can independently produce material for a nuclear bomb and reveals the imminence of the Iranian threat. Previously, timelines for Iran’s nuclearization ranged from twelve months to ten years. Now it is four months.Read
the full essay
War Games Warning -
09 November 2006
The timing and scope of Iranian war games held this week again demonstrates the growing threat emanating from Tehran. The provocative exercises and Iran’s recent expansion of its nuclear program give further action to the regime’s violent rhetoric, making the Iranian threat to the civilized world increasingly evident. With a progressively more sophisticated military capability, it is only a matter of time until Iran’s capacity to inflict destruction equals its stated ambition to do so. The international community must actively confront this threat and end its internal discord. Read
the full essay
Russian Roulette II -
02 November 2006
The resumption of negotiations at the United
Nations Security Council over Iran's nuclear program
highlights the obstructionist global position
of Russia. Ostensibly an ally of the West and the
civilized world, Russia's recent foreign policy
choices have undermined world security. Iran is
just one highly consequential symptom of this
larger Russian epidemic.Read
the full essay
Russian Roulette -
20 October 2006
The Russian government recently imposed a
series of harsh sanctions on the Republic of
Georgia in retaliation for Georgia's brief arrest of
four Russian officials it accused of espionage.
The sanctions include a ban on certain travel
between the two countries, constraints on
telecommunications and mail, a shipping blockade,
a crackdown in Russia on Georgian owned
businesses, and mass deportations from Russia
of Georgian immigrants, including taking children
out of school.Read
the full essay
A Great Debate -
28 September 2006
A Great Debate
Like Hitler and Mussolini, Iranian President
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is using boldfaced rhetoric
and self-described rational argument to support
his tyrannical rule, racist policy and militant
position. Too often no one seems willing to
counter or condemn his outrageous statements
from fear of dignifying them and him. In an
enclosed vacuum, this would not be a mistake.
However, as Ahmadinejad’s views of history,
opinions of the present and threats for the future
get beamed to the four corners of the Earth,
leaving his proclamations unchallenged is dangerous
and wrong.Read
the full essay
Khatami V. Khatami -
14 September 2006
Iranian President Mohammed Khatami visited the United States this week to promote "dialogue," and obfuscate Iran's record of nuclear development, support for terror and human rights violations. Judged by those goals, Khatami's visit was a success. On the day Khatami left the US, the Boston Globe editorialized: "Khatami's visit to America has embodied the spirit of dialogue that he preaches. President George W. Bush's decision to grant Khatami a visa for his visit reflects a wise, if belated, realization that the former Iranian president represents a reformist current in Iran's politics that should not be discouraged. Ineffective as Khatami may have been at protecting and defending Iran's truly ardent reformists during his time in power, he is utterly different from Ahmadinejad."1
Read
the full essay
