WJC ANALYSIS - Jordan’s balancing act

23 January 2012

By Pinhas Inbari

Last week’s visit by King Abdullah II of Jordan to the White House came on the heels of his October interview in the 'Washington Post' where he spoke about the lack of trust between Arab leaders and West. He added that his view was shared by Egypt’s Field Marshall Tantawi, stating: "I think there is going to be less coordination with the West and therefore a chance of more misunderstandings. Egypt is trying to develop its own way of moving forwards." Therefore, Abdullah’s primary mission on his visit to the United States has been to report on American plans for the region to Arab leaders.

The feeling of distrust between the United States and Arab leaders was reinforced by an incident that took place last week in Bahrain. According to reports, the American ambassador to Manama angrily quit the room at a Gulf States security conference after being loudly questioned on the American policy in the Gulf by the famous chief of the Dubai Police Force, Dahi Khalfan, who was involved in investigating the alleged Mossad assassination of Hamas military commander Mahmoud al-Mabhouh in January 2010. Khalfan accused the United States of actually aiding Iran by exporting the Khomeini revolution and spreading the Muslim Brotherhood. Additionally, the Deputy Prime Minister of Bahrain, Sheikh Muhammad bin Mubarak al-Khalifa said that “the American policy the number one threat to regional security.” The Bahrini prince concluded his speech by saying,” America is no longer a friend, but frightens us."

In the above-mentioned interview in the 'Washington Post', King Abdullah proudly mentions that the unrest in Jordan has yet to claim a single life. His policy of shifting the focus of the unrest to the political and civilized track, far from the bloody Syrian example, has forced the Jordanian monarch to dialogue on reforms with the Muslim Brotherhood. However, Abdullah’s careful politics are not welcomed by the Gulf States, especially Saudi Arabia, and have been the reason behind the sudden silence by the Gulf on the possibility of Jordan joining the GCC. The Gulf, which feels it has enough problems with Qatar – the pro Muslim Brotherhood emirate –  would not like to include Jordan in its ranks in light of the possibility that the Muslim Brotherhood might participate in the regime in Amman. 

At the same time, Jordan is keen on prolonging the negotiations between the Israelis and the Palestinians. The monarchy wishes to extend the scope of the negotiations beyond the issues of borders and security, to encompass the problem of the Palestinian refugees and the status of Jerusalem, as a collapse of the negotiations may have an adverse effect on Jordan’s stability and stir its large Palestinian population. Despite Abdullah’s wishes to the contrary, PLO leader Mahmoud Abbas is unlikely to extend the negotiations beyond the 26 January deadline given by the Quartet.

While Jordanian interests conflict with those of the PLO, they are also hampered by the rise of the regional Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas, which enjoy the support of a large Palestinian constituency in Jordan. Jordan’s traditional policy toward its local Muslim Brotherhood always demanded that the organization remain purely of Jordanian character, loyal to Jordan and not affiliated to a Shura outside its borders. It was also understood that the Brotherhood was not to suggest Jordan as an alternative homeland for the Palestinians. 

The growing influence of the Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan has raised fears in the Gulf about Jordan becoming a state like Qatar. In response, Jordan has launched a process to redefine the Muslim Brotherhood’s operational limits in the country. It has done so in order to show the Gulf States that it has successfully regulated the fundamentalist movement and has confined it to Jordan’s borders.

King Abdullah II went even further to deliver a message from the Sunni governments in the region of their dissatisfaction with the American policies toward Iran and boosting the status of the Muslim Brotherhood across the region. In addition, the king encouraged President Obama not to abandon the peace negotiations between Israel and the PLO in order to contain the Palestinians in Jordan that so far have kept their distance from the trend of general unrest in the Middle East and North Africa.